My Forex Trend Line Strategy GBPUSD Case Study 1


I have received emails from readers of this blog asking me to showcase more examples of my forex trend line strategy at work and therefore I decided to setup this section on this blog to show you examples of forex trend line strategy happening on various different currency.

What Is Forex Trend Line Strategy

It is the trading of currency with the help of long term, medium term and short term trend line. Whenever there is a valid breakout of the short term trend line, it will always move towards the medium term trend line. Once it manages to break the medium trend line with valid breakout, it will always moves towards the long term trend line.

What we are doing in this forex trend line strategy is to be able to draw the correct short, medium and long term trend line and then wait for the price to break the short term trend line. Once you manage to validate the trend line break, you will enter a trade in the direction of the breakout and then place your target profit at the medium term trend line.

Once the price breaks the medium trend line with valid breakout, you will then enter another trade with the long term trend line as the target profit.

Below is a case study of the forex trend line strategy at work for the month of July 2011 on the GBPUSD.

Take a look at the picture above, you can see that there are 3 lines and they are namely Short Term Trend Line (RED), Medium Term Trend Line (BLUE) and Long Term Trend Line (BLACK).

Discussion on the Case Study

You can see that there is a valid trend line break on the short term trend line and what we will do is to enter a trade and then wait for the price to hit the medium trend line for an exit.

Once the price hits the medium trend line, it will usually retrace back. Can you see that I have circled a fake out which is something very common in trading. The fake out are what usually causes new traders to lost their money.

From the trend line strategy course, you will learn how to tell a valid breakout from a fake out and this is what you will avoid.

Sometimes later, there is a valid medium term trend line break where you can enter a trade. This time, you will wait for the price to hit the long term trend line and then you exit your position.

In the trade above, there is a profit of 200 pips. I will continue to showcase other examples of my forex trend line strategy at work.

The Importance of Support and Resistance

If you have been looking at your forex chart, you will understand that the market is moving in waves of ups and downs. Have you ever wondered why the price behaves in such a way?

In fact, most of the time, it is due to the price hitting a major support or resistance level that causes it to be repelled by it forming the waves. Therefore if you want to be profitable in trading, you need to know where exactly these levels of support and resistance are.

Below are the major support and resistance you need to take note:

1) Swings

Swing high is N-shaped patterns that are formed by several candlesticks.

Swing Low is V-shaped patterns that are formed by several candlesticks.

Major Swing High and Low

Swing high will be taken as level of resistance while swing lows are taken as level of support. You have to also note that past support will usually turns into new resistance and past resistance will usually turns into new support.

2) Fibonacci

The Fibonacci levels are major levels of support and resistance that you have to take note of. This is because the Fibonacci indicator is used by institution traders and therefore has a major significant to the price movement.

The Fibonacci indicator consists of retracement and extension and all of them make strong level of support and resistance. I will write a blog post especially on Fibonacci indicator to give you a better insight on how to use this indicator in your trading.

Fibonacci Indicators

3) Pivot Levels

Besides the Fibonacci level, the pivot points are levels that are used by institution traders. If you plot the daily pivot, weekly pivot or even monthly pivot on your trading chart, you will see that the price often respect these levels and get repelled by it.

forex pivot points

From the 3 major support and resistance listed above, you now have a better understanding on why the price moves in ups and downs. I hope that you will integrate these support and resistance levels into your trading plan as it will definitely help you improve your trading accuracy.

Forex Breakout Systems Example 1

In this series of blog post, I shall be showing you the various trading example for those strategies that I have shared with you in my post.

In today example, I will be showing you how to trade the forex breakout system that I have written about in my post.

Currency Pair: EURUSD

Date of Example: 18 March 2011 0100hr

Indicators Required: Bollinger Bands

First of all, we can see the formation of a trend channel and therefore we will draw a support and resistance trend line.

At 0100 hr, the price actually breaks below the support trend line. However we usually are not able to enter a trade at the exact time of breakout. Therefore I will usually wait for the price to come back to retest the new resistance that is formed by the old support before entering a position.

Where to place your stop loss?

I will usually place the stop loss 30 pips above the breakout level and if you are trading a 1:2 risk reward ratio, you will place your target profit 60 pips away. However the forex breakout system can usually have a risk reward ratio as high as 1:5.

Outcome

The price moves down for 400 pips in total.

I shall be adding in more examples on different forex strategies that I have talked about in this blog so that you can have a feel of how those strategies work.

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